Ayman Tibi

Research

• Conditional Trade Policy for Peace? The Economic Effects of Qualifying Industrial Zones in the Middle East
  Work in progress
  Abstract

  This paper examines how conditional trade policies with input-sourcing requirements affect firms’ exports, production, and labor outcomes. I study Egypt’s Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZ) program, which grants duty-free access to the U.S. market conditional on sourcing inputs from Israel. I estimate event-study and triple-difference specifications using firm-level customs data, industrial census records, and labor force surveys. I find large and persistent export gains along both intensive and extensive margins alongside improvements in output, productivity, employment, and wages. The improvements are driven by U.S. market access rather than the quality of Israeli inputs. To map these firm-level responses into aggregate and welfare implications, I develop a quantitative heterogeneous-firm trade model with endogenous QIZ compliance, rules-of-origin costs, and productivity upgrading. The framework is used to quantify the program’s economy-wide effects and conduct counterfactual analyses that vary the Israeli content requirement, highlighting the trade-off between lower tariffs and higher input costs.

• From Code to Factory Floor: Software Parks and Manufacturing in India
  With Tanay Agrawal
  Abstract

  This project studies whether the expansion of Software Technology Parks in India, introduced to promote IT and software exports, generated spillovers to the manufacturing sector. The question speaks to broader debates on services-led growth, premature deindustrialization, and whether productivity gains in tradable services can complement rather than displace manufacturing in developing economies. I first document that these parks created a large productivity shock in the IT sector in treated districts, and then examine whether this shock affected manufacturing firms using variation across districts and firms in exposure to the parks. In particular, I test whether firms that relied more on software and IT inputs before the policy benefited more from improvements in local IT productivity. To better understand the mechanisms and broader equilibrium implications, I plan to develop a model that can capture how services productivity shocks transmit to manufacturing outcomes.

• The Political Economy of Newspaper Funding in India
  With Pooja Singh
  Abstract

  This project studies how incumbent governments in India choose to advertise in newspapers and whether this spending is used strategically to influence electoral outcomes.

• Public Investments and Conflict
  With Ayah Bohsali
  Abstract

  More to come soon

Teaching

• Teaching Assistant, Advanced Microeconomics (Master Level)
  University of Mannheim, [2023, 2024, 2025]
• Grading Assistant, Leadership and Motivation (Master Level Business Course)
  University of Mannheim, 2025

Data and Code

• Newly Digitized Data on Egypt’s Manufacturing Sectors by Region (2002–2021)
  Coming soon: a publicly available dataset on Egypt’s manufacturing sector, at the 2- or 4-digit level, by governorate and year. Variables include the number of employees by gender, number of firms, wages, production, revenue, and value added.

Other Writings

• Arab development has a high cost... and this is what our countries ignore! (in Arabic)
  180 Post, 2024
• Can Lebanon follow Romania's suit and develop its IT sector? (in Arabic)
  180 Post, 2024

CV

You can download my curriculum vitae here.