Ayman Tibi

Research

• Trade Policy for Peace?
  Special Mention at IMF MENA Research Conference
  Abstract

  Countries may use trade agreements to strengthen relations among allies and advance geopolitical interests. In this paper, I study the U.S.-fostered Qualifying Industrial Zones agreement, which grants Egyptian and Jordanian firms in designated zones duty-free access to the U.S. market conditional on sourcing a fixed share of inputs from Israel. Using firm-level customs data, industrial census records, and labor force surveys, I find that the agreement generated large and persistent gains in exports, firm productivity, and wages, driven primarily by preferential access to the U.S. market rather than by improvements in the quality of Israeli inputs. To evaluate the role of the input requirement, I develop a heterogeneous-firm trade model in which firms endogenously choose whether to participate in the QIZ program by satisfying the sourcing rule and whether to upgrade productivity. The model shows that lowering the Israeli input requirement can increase both Egyptian welfare and imports from Israel by inducing broader firm participation, thereby advancing the U.S. objective of deepening regional trade while improving economic outcomes in Egypt. I calibrate the model to Egypt and show that the agreement led to a decrease in welfare driven by crowding out of non-QIZ economic industries. Lowering the input requirement increases participation within and between industries and hence increases welfare.

• Spillovers of IT across Industries and Regions: Evidence from Indian Tech Parks
  With Tanay Agrawal
  Abstract

  The IT sector has become an important driver of economic growth, but its spillovers to the rest of the economy remain less understood. In this paper, we study how the expansion of the IT sector through the establishment of tech parks generates spillovers to the rest of the economy. A simple model highlights two channels: first, productivity growth in IT raises local wages and attracts workers, increasing demand for goods and services produced by other industries; second, when IT services are used as production inputs, higher IT productivity lowers their cost and raises productivity in downstream sectors. We test these mechanisms using two empirical strategies. First, exploiting the staggered introduction of Software Technology Parks of India (STPIs) across cities in a difference-in-differences framework, we show that STPIs increase the number of IT firms and workers in nearby areas and generate broader growth in manufacturing, non-tradable services, and population, consistent with a local agglomeration and demand channel. Second, combining foreign demand shocks for IT services with state-level STPI exposure, we find that manufacturing firms in more exposed states increase their use of computer and software inputs and experience substantial long-run productivity gains. Together, the results show that IT-sector growth can generate broad and persistent spillovers across sectors and regions, highlighting its role in economic development.

• When Husbands Lose Jobs or Die: Women’s Labor Supply in Egypt
  With Qinkun Yao
  Abstract

  We study how women in Egypt adjust their labor supply when their husbands experience a severe employment shock, comparing involuntary job loss with the death of a working husband. Employing an event-study difference-in-differences design, we find no employment response to husbands’ job loss but a sizable increase in women’s employment after widowhood, especially among poorer and less-insured households. The results suggest that women’s labor supply responds more strongly to permanent income losses than to temporary ones, with much of the adjustment occurring through informal employment.

• Public Investments and Conflict (Draft Soon)
  With Ayah Bohsali
  Abstract

  We study how conflict shapes the Nigerian government's allocation of public investment across locations and sectors.Using novel data on federal procurement contracts and constituency-level capital projects scraped from Nigerian government portals, and an instrumental variable strategy exploiting distance-weighted spillovers of conflict from neighboring countries, we uncover three facts. First, that public investment decreases with the onset of conflict. Second, that conditional on conflict occurring, it is increasing in the frequency of conflict events. Third, we show that these increases are concentrated in investment in physical infrastructure. The findings point to governments' strategic reaction to conflict through investment allocation.

Teaching

• Teaching Assistant, Advanced Microeconomics (Master Level)
  University of Mannheim, [2023, 2024, 2025]
• Grading Assistant, Leadership and Motivation (Master Level Business Course)
  University of Mannheim, 2025

Data and Code

• Newly Digitized Data on Egypt’s Manufacturing Sectors by Region (2002–2021)
  Coming soon: a publicly available dataset on Egypt’s manufacturing sector, at the 2- or 4-digit level, by governorate and year. Variables include the number of employees by gender, number of firms, wages, production, revenue, and value added.

Other Writings

• Arab development has a high cost... and this is what our countries ignore! (in Arabic)
  180 Post, 2024
• Can Lebanon follow Romania's suit and develop its IT sector? (in Arabic)
  180 Post, 2024

CV

You can download my curriculum vitae here.