Ayman Tibi

Research

Job Market Paper

• The Economics of a Trade Policy for Peace?
  Special Mention at IMF MENA Research Conference
  Abstract

  Countries may use trade agreements to promote peaceful relations among allies and advance geopolitical interests. In this paper, I study the U.S.-fostered Qualifying Industrial Zones agreement, which grants Egyptian firms in designated zones tariff-free access to the U.S. market conditional on sourcing a fixed share of inputs from Israel. Using product level trade data, firm level customs records, and industrial statistics and a diff in diffs design, I find that the agreement generated large and persistent gains in exports not only to the U.S. but also to other destinations. This expansion to other destinations is driven by and wages for exposed industries driven primarily by preferential access to the U.S. market rather than by improvements in the quality of Israeli inputs. To quantify the welfare effects of the agreement and evaluate the design of the agreement, I develop a heterogeneous-firm trade model in which firms endogenously choose whether to participate in the QIZ program by satisfying the sourcing rule. Calibrating the model to Egyptian data, I find that the agreement generates positive but very small welfare gains, primarily due to the small size of the industries and the small number of firms benefiting from the agreement. Lowering the Israeli input requirement increases Egyptian welfare modestly however may increase imports from Israel by inducing broader firm participation. These findings reveal a trade off in the agreement's design: stricter sourcing requirements may discourage participation and thereby reduce the very trade they are intended to promote.

Working Papers

• When Trade Agreements Become Easier to Use: Evidence from Jordan
  Prepared for the Emerging Markets Review Special Issue: Rethinking MENA Integration in a Fast-Changing Global Environment
  Draft available upon request
  Abstract

  Trade agreements often condition preferential market access on non-tariff eligibility requirements, such as rules of origin. These requirements can limit the use of preferential agreements and hinder deeper trade integration. In this paper, I study how trade responds when exporters gain access to a less restrictive preferential trade regime. I exploit the implementation of the U.S.–Jordan Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which introduced an alternative to Jordan’s existing Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZ) program. Both regimes ultimately provided tariff-free access to the U.S. market, but the FTA did so under less restrictive rules of origin and production-location requirements. Using product-level trade data from multiple sources, I find that the FTA’s less restrictive eligibility requirements affected trade along three margins. Exporters shifted away from the QIZ program and toward the FTA, exports to the United States increased in industries with a strong pre-existing presence in that market, and FTA liberalization induced new product entry into the U.S. market. The results suggest that reducing non-tariff barriers embedded in preferential trade agreements can deepen trade integration by encouraging the use of less restrictive preference regimes and expanding trade at both the intensive and extensive margins.

• Public Investments and Conflict
  With Ayah Bohsali
  Draft available upon request
  Abstract

  We study how conflict shapes how governments allocate public investments across locations and sectors. We digitize and geocode a novel dataset of capital projects allocated by Nigerian members of parliament to their localities. Using an instrumental variable strategy exploiting distance-weighted spillovers of conflict from neighboring countries, we uncover three facts regarding the relationship between conflict and public investments. First, that public investment decreases with the onset of conflict. Second, that conditional on conflict occurring, the allocation of public investments across regions is increasing in the frequency of conflict events. Third, we show that these increases are concentrated in investment in physical infrastructure. We rationalize these findings through a model where the onset of conflict decreases the returns to public investment. However, as conflict intensifies, governments have stronger incentives to use public investments as a tool to mitigate conflict. The findings highlight how conflict creates diverging incentives for public investment, shaping its allocation across regions and sectors.

Works in Progress

• When Husbands Lose Jobs or Die: Women’s Labor Supply in Egypt
  With Qinkun Yao
  Abstract

  We study how women in Egypt adjust their labor supply when their husbands experience a severe employment shock, comparing involuntary job loss with the death of a working husband. Employing an event-study difference-in-differences design, we find no employment response to husbands’ job loss but a sizable increase in women’s employment after widowhood, especially among poorer and less-insured households. Husbands’ attitudes toward women’s employment do not significantly affect the magnitude of these responses. The results suggest that women’s labor supply responds more strongly to permanent income losses than to temporary ones, with much of the adjustment occurring through informal employment.

• Spillovers of IT across Industries and Regions: Evidence from Indian Tech Parks
  With Tanay Agrawal
  Abstract

  The IT sector has become an important driver of economic growth, but its spillovers to the rest of the economy remain less understood. In this paper, we study how the expansion of the IT sector through the establishment of tech parks generates spillovers to the rest of the economy. A simple model highlights two channels: first, productivity growth in IT raises local wages and attracts workers, increasing demand for goods and services produced by other industries; second, when IT services are used as production inputs, higher IT productivity lowers their cost and raises productivity in downstream sectors. We test these mechanisms using two empirical strategies. First, exploiting the staggered introduction of Software Technology Parks of India (STPIs) across cities in a difference-in-differences framework, we show that STPIs increase the number of IT firms and workers in nearby areas and generate broader growth in manufacturing, non-tradable services, and population, consistent with a local agglomeration and demand channel. Second, combining foreign demand shocks for IT services with state-level STPI exposure, we find that manufacturing firms in more exposed states increase their use of computer and software inputs and experience substantial long-run productivity gains. Together, the results show that IT-sector growth can generate broad and persistent spillovers across sectors and regions, highlighting its role in economic development.

• Physical Capital Shocks: Evidence from Dismantling of German Firms after WWII
  With Jochen Streb

Teaching

• Teaching Assistant, Advanced Microeconomics (Master Level)
  University of Mannheim, [2023, 2024, 2025, 2026]
• Grading Assistant, Leadership and Motivation (Master Level Business Course)
  University of Mannheim, 2025

Data and Code

• Newly Digitized Data on Egypt’s Manufacturing Sectors by Region (2002–2021)
  Coming soon: a publicly available dataset on Egypt’s manufacturing sector, at the 2- or 4-digit level, by governorate and year. Variables include the number of employees by gender, number of firms, wages, production, revenue, and value added.

Other Writings

• The Ignored High Cost of Development in the Arab World (in Arabic)
  180 Post, 2024
• What can Lebanon Learn from Romania's IT Sector? (in Arabic)
  180 Post, 2024

CV

You can download my curriculum vitae here .